Championship Saturday
The big day has arrived! Kim and Sue had talked to the owners of the Culbertson Mansion yesterday and told them, "This 9 am breakfast isn't going to work for Saturday" because everyone staying here this weekend was going to the Breeders' Cup. And with first post of 10:45 am and travel time we knew we'd want to leave by 9:15 am or so. They told everyone staying there that they would have a continental breakfast for us today and make it up with Eggs Benedict tomorrow (the day we were all headed out).
Keith had been up early and had driven a direct route to the stadium parking site and he let us know it was a simple 1 1/2 turn, less than ten minutes to park. So we headed out at 9:15 and it was so easy to get there, we were parked and on the shuttle bus (which today they had MANY more) and on our way to Churchill Downs by 9:30 am. We arrived, got through the gates and posed for the "Twin Spires" picture and the "Breeders' Cup Statute" photo.
As we walked around we found an Instant Gram backdrop so we posed again....
The racing started and I had decided to compromise on my two schools of thought on a wagering strategy. I would pass one of the two first non-BC races and I would up the bet on the BET of the Day. I felt comfortable that this gave me the best chance of (a) enjoying being at the Breeders' Cup as an "event," and (b) having a good day at the races as a handicapper. In the first race the horse I had tabbed to bet took the lead turning for home, but was caught on the wire. Good decision to pass. The second race was the first stakes event of the day, the Cherokee Run Stakes. It featured the long awaited return to racing of Todd Pletcher's start 3yo, Audible. He'd won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth for me and the Grade 1 Florida Derby. After running third in the Kentucky Derby he'd been on the shelf, but I'd read recently the connections were contemplating a bid at the January 26th Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream. So today's race was obviously a prep. At seven furlongs it was probably too short for him, and with bigger targets ahead I wondered just how cranked up he was. But I also thought he was simply way, WAY better than these rivals. He laid mid-pack to the far turn, rallied up five wide and as they passed by us at our seats at the 1/8th pole he blew by and drew off in hand! WHOOOO HOOOO! I'm a winner on the first bet of the day!
Now the nine consecutive Breeders' Cup events were on tap. First up was one of the three horses I thought had an excellent chance of winning, Marley's Freedom in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She looked to capitalize on what I thought would be a hot pace, and she had Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. I thought it she was too far back early, but she came flying and just missed. In the next, the BC Turf Sprint I went with Rainbow Heir as an upset pick. He was nowhere to be found, but my second choice - Stormy Liberal scored at better than 3/1. In the dirt mile I thought that Catalina Cruiser was a solid short priced favorite. BUT, he'd never been out of So Cal, never been a mile, much less a one-turn mile, and would be a very short price for trainer John Sadler who was working on a 41/0-3-7 Breeders' Cup resume. I went with third choice Firenze Fire who made a bold bid on the turn but flattened out. My third choice, City of Light went wire to wire at 5/2. In the 6th race, the BC Filly & Mare Turf I couldn't decide between Chad Brown's Sistercharlie or stablemate Fourstar Crook. I thought they were virtually equal and I'd get a better price on 'Crook. I rarely handicap like that.....sigh. I made a strong move on the turn, flattened out at 9/2 while Sistercharlie - who I liked best if the truth were told - won at a big 3/1 price. Sigh...... I should have used this as a lesson because in the next, the BC Sprint I thought Roy H was a very likely winner, and favorite. So I went with Promises Fulfilled at a price. Set a wicked pace to the stretch then watched Roy H blow by at 5/2 as an easy winner..... again, sigh....... In the Breeders' Cup Mile my top Euro scratched, so I "should" have gone with my second choice Expert Eye. But I was intrigued by one of my favorite horses, Divisdero who had scratched in off the AE list. He loves the Churchill course and was bigger than 30/1 in the program. And my oldest son Jeff liked him. He sat the perfect trip to the far turn and moved strongly five-wide to challenge. As they came off the turn he was even with the leaders and put his head in front....OH MY....
But he couldn't hold off the deep closers and was beaten a mere 3/4 of a length at odds of 43/1 - that was exciting! Post time for the next race, the 9th was 4:16 pm. So I'd endured the day with a win at about 11:30 am and many "should have" winners as we headed into the Breeders' Cup Distaff. BUT, I kept telling myself that IF I could score here and in the next with my two BEST BETS of the day, my plan would have worked to perfection. The main decision here was between the top 3yo of the year Monomoy Girl vs. what had been the top older mare, Abel Tasman. But after two giant wins, Abel Tasman had looked awful, finishing fifth, some ten lengths back at a minuscule 1/9 price in her final prep for today. I thought Monomoy Girl - who'd won the Kentucky Oaks here AND was stabled here AND was coming out of the worst DQ in the history of thoroughbred racing - was sitting on a huge effort. She tracked the leader to the far turn well in hand, Abel Tasman a length back. Then 'Abel faded and Monomoy took over and ran away!
My "prime time" investment got me back nearly $60 and suddenly I was ahead for the day with two wins from eight races. And now, it all boiled down to this, the Breeders' Cup Turf. In Europe the racing season is geared to the Arc de Triomphe Day (like their Breeders' Cup). No horse had ever won BOTH the Arc and the BC Turf. But, in studying it this year I thought, and later read in an article that stated much of what I'd analyzed, that all seven previous Arc winners who tried to win the turf had come off of long campaigns of 6-to-10 races in Europe, obviously pointing for the Arc. Then to try and ship overseas, in three weeks off a year-long goal victory, was just too much. There had been an eighth winner of the Arc who came to the Breeders' Cup, but he had run in the Classic on the dirt. And he had only had two races prior to his Arc win. The result, second beaten a nose in the Classic. Fast forward to today's big pick - Enable. As a 3yo filly she'd won the Arc last year off a six-race campaign. But last winter she had knee problems so she was idle until September. She won a one-mile race on synthetic surface then repeated in the mile and a half Arc. So her pattern mirrored that of the one Arc winner who'd run in the Classic. I also thought - and later read some "experts" who said the trainer had hinted at - that she might not have been fully cranked for the Arc and actually might run better today! She rode the rail, saving ground to the far turn before international superstar rider Frankie Detorri moved her into the clear. Right to the front, and while she dueled as they ran right in front of us, she edged clear late and WON!
What was so amazing is that EVERYONE said she would be the shortest price favorite of the weekend, but she went off at an unbelievably inflated price of 4/5. AND with my revised strategy for today I'd changed my original planned $50 bet to $100 to WIN - and CASHED! This meant I would be cashing for $180 on this race and was now guaranteed to profit over $80 for the day and have three winners from nine races.....33% - suddenly it was an exceptional day!
In the favorite I thought Accelerate was the best horse, but he was in post 14 and had John Sadler (the 0-for-41 trainer) on his side. So I went with Mendelssohn as an upset. Led to the stretch and finished a good fourth - behind Accelerate, good for John Sadler! The day's weather was spectacular blue skies and it was actually a little warm most of the day, and amazing racing. What a great weekend!
But he couldn't hold off the deep closers and was beaten a mere 3/4 of a length at odds of 43/1 - that was exciting! Post time for the next race, the 9th was 4:16 pm. So I'd endured the day with a win at about 11:30 am and many "should have" winners as we headed into the Breeders' Cup Distaff. BUT, I kept telling myself that IF I could score here and in the next with my two BEST BETS of the day, my plan would have worked to perfection. The main decision here was between the top 3yo of the year Monomoy Girl vs. what had been the top older mare, Abel Tasman. But after two giant wins, Abel Tasman had looked awful, finishing fifth, some ten lengths back at a minuscule 1/9 price in her final prep for today. I thought Monomoy Girl - who'd won the Kentucky Oaks here AND was stabled here AND was coming out of the worst DQ in the history of thoroughbred racing - was sitting on a huge effort. She tracked the leader to the far turn well in hand, Abel Tasman a length back. Then 'Abel faded and Monomoy took over and ran away!
My "prime time" investment got me back nearly $60 and suddenly I was ahead for the day with two wins from eight races. And now, it all boiled down to this, the Breeders' Cup Turf. In Europe the racing season is geared to the Arc de Triomphe Day (like their Breeders' Cup). No horse had ever won BOTH the Arc and the BC Turf. But, in studying it this year I thought, and later read in an article that stated much of what I'd analyzed, that all seven previous Arc winners who tried to win the turf had come off of long campaigns of 6-to-10 races in Europe, obviously pointing for the Arc. Then to try and ship overseas, in three weeks off a year-long goal victory, was just too much. There had been an eighth winner of the Arc who came to the Breeders' Cup, but he had run in the Classic on the dirt. And he had only had two races prior to his Arc win. The result, second beaten a nose in the Classic. Fast forward to today's big pick - Enable. As a 3yo filly she'd won the Arc last year off a six-race campaign. But last winter she had knee problems so she was idle until September. She won a one-mile race on synthetic surface then repeated in the mile and a half Arc. So her pattern mirrored that of the one Arc winner who'd run in the Classic. I also thought - and later read some "experts" who said the trainer had hinted at - that she might not have been fully cranked for the Arc and actually might run better today! She rode the rail, saving ground to the far turn before international superstar rider Frankie Detorri moved her into the clear. Right to the front, and while she dueled as they ran right in front of us, she edged clear late and WON!
In the favorite I thought Accelerate was the best horse, but he was in post 14 and had John Sadler (the 0-for-41 trainer) on his side. So I went with Mendelssohn as an upset. Led to the stretch and finished a good fourth - behind Accelerate, good for John Sadler! The day's weather was spectacular blue skies and it was actually a little warm most of the day, and amazing racing. What a great weekend!
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